Polymarket gives Gemini 4 Argon 69% odds as Claude Fable 5.5 rumors grow
After Gemini 4 Argon's launch, Polymarket puts its odds of being the best model by end of October at 69%, and the author weighs an Anthropic response and a possible Claude Fable 5.5 leak on Azure.
CLAUDE FABLE 5.5 MIGHT BE MUCH CLOSER THAN PPL EXPECT Google just dropped Gemini 4 Argon, and Polymarket is giving it 69% odds of being the best AI model by the end of October I don't think Anthropic will let that narrative sit with the IPO getting closer. A major Claude upgrade would make a lot of sense rn On Oct 13, Claude Fable 5.5 showed up in Azure Models API and disappeared shortly after Polymarket still has Fable 5.2+ by Oct 17 at just 47.5%, while Oct 21 is already at 79.5% With liquidity this thin, I'd rather leave a limit on @tradenomos and wait for my price If that Azure leak was real, I think Oct 17 is where the interesting trade is