Grok Bot runs Polymarket quant arbitrage for $130K profit in 179 days
Someone built a two-sided BTC up-or-down arbitrage system with Grok Bot that reached +$130,885 PnL in 179 days, averaging $731 a day, and the post breaks down the Bayesian updating and Kelly betting logic.
This guy used Grok Bot to build a Quant Hedge Limit system and it made $731 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$130,885 PnL in 179 days with about $525 per market traded, repeating the same setup across roughly 7 markets every hour in BTC "Up or Down" Several AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. The bot tracks both sides of the same market instead of predicting one direction Every BTC market has two outcomes: Up and Down One of them always settles at 100¢, so the bot looks for moments when both sides together leave an edge Gross Edge = 100¢ - (Up Entry + Down Entry) For example: Up = 47¢ Down = 50¢ Gross Edge = 3¢ Instead of predicting BTC, the bot is trying to capture the difference between the two entries and their final 100¢ settlement value 2. Bayes continuously updates the probability behind each outcome As new BTC and order book data arrive: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) Where: P(A) = previous probability B = new market information P(A|B) = updated probability The bot can compare that updated probability with the current Up and Down quotes The larger the mismatch, the stronger the potential edge This trader’s Polymarket account:https://polymarket.com/@flippingsharks?via=dan-kwpx Most profitable trades: $274 → $967 (+$693) $42 → $668 (+$626) $30 → $640 (+$609) The bot finds a two-sided edge first, then uses Kelly to determine the optimal size
This post quotes another post: x.com/dan1ro0/status/2090102415210971442