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LMArena skepticism: Gemini 4 Argon vote count falls three weeks running

The post claims Gemini 4 Argon is the first model to lose LMArena votes weekly, dropping from 4932 to 4900 between Sep 29 and Oct 20, and alleges rankings follow Polymarket bets rather than votes.

Binkg

@dummerspast39Archived 7 days agoOriginally posted 2026.10.21

LMArena skepticism: Gemini 4 Argon vote count falls three weeks running (image 1 of 3)

LMArena skepticism: Gemini 4 Argon vote count falls three weeks running (image 2 of 3)

LMArena skepticism: Gemini 4 Argon vote count falls three weeks running (image 3 of 3)

Binkg @dummerspast39Originally posted 2026.10.21

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Congratulations to Gemini 4 Argon for being the first model to lose votes on LMArena every week! 🥳 You might be surprised, but the rating is not determined by votes but what lab the employees bet on on polymarket (best model based determined by their text arena)! As Muse Wonder performs surprisingly well, it was too risky to ever let them meet each other. Otherwise Muse might even overtake! September 29 - 4932 votes Oct 15 -4904 votes Oct 20 - 4900 votes

x.com/dummerspast39/status/2112648586307485696Archived 2026.10.21 09:55