Polymarket odds on Kimi K3.1 top-5 Arena debut, author skeptical
The author puts Kimi K3.1 Pro's chance of debuting top-5 on Arena Text at about 5%, noting new entries like Gemini 4 Argon carry roughly ±9 error bars.
Polymarket gives Kimi K3.1 Pro 10% to debut in the top 5 of Arena's Text leaderboard. I say ~5%. Its predecessor K3 debuted at 1486. Today's #5 sits at 1503 First, the rules. The first Kimi K3.1 entry on the Text board sets the bet. Its rank is read at 12:00 PM ET the next day. AutoEval entries don't count. Arena's changelog lists it in WebDev (Oct 23) and Agent Arena (Oct 24), not Text. The bull case is real: → WebDev: #8 at 1692, +37 vs K3 → Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: 55, up from K3's 44 But those are coding and benchmark results. Text Arena is people voting on chat answers. Where the bars sit on Text: #5: 1503 #10: ~1491 K3 at launch: 1486 (#9 back then) Top 10 needs a small step up. Top 5 needs +17 or more, and today's top 5 runs up to 1532. What proves me wrong: a debut score of 1503+. K3.1 jumped a lot elsewhere, and the rank is read the day after it appears, on early votes. New entries carry wide error bars: Gemini 4 Argon ±9, Opus 5 (High) ±4. Math: Top 5: market 10%, me ~5%. No at 91¢ pays +10%. Top 10: market 32%, me ~30%. Fair. Top 20: 68% shown, but Yes costs 78¢ and pays +28%. I'm at ~72%, so no edge. Total volume: $12.7K, thin. Only the Top 5 line looks mispriced. Top 10 and Top 20 look about right, and the debut score decides them. Will its first Text score clear 1503, or land closer to K3's 1486?
This post quotes another post: x.com/ffkipa4/status/2114296945661337942