Polymarket odds of Google having the best model by October jump to 74% after Gemini 4 Argon
After Gemini 4 Argon launched, Polymarket's probability that Google will have the best AI model by the end of October rose from 4% to 74%, and Argon already tops the Arena leaderboard.
THIS IS INSANE: Google just made an almost 20x move on Polymarket After the release of Gemini 4 Argon, traders now believe Google will have the BEST AI model by the end of October If we look at previous months in 2026: -> January: Google (Gemini 3 Pro) -> February: Anthropic (Claude Opus 4.6) -> March: Anthropic (Claude Opus 4.6) -> April: Anthropic (Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking) -> May: Anthropic (Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking) -> June: Anthropic (Claude Fable 5) -> July: Anthropic (Claude Opus 5) -> August: Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 Max) -> September: Anthropic (Claude Opus 5.5) Anthropic won this market for 8 MONTHS in a row But everything changed after Google introduced Gemini 4 Argon -> Google YES jumped from 4% to 74% in just a few days -> That’s an 18.5x move -> $100 could have turned into $1,850 if you bought and sold at those prices And Gemini 4 Argon is already sitting at #1 on the Arena leaderboard The main question is whether Google can hold this position until October 31 Do you think Google will finally break Anthropic’s streak or Claude will take the lead again?