Analyst: Anthropic ARR miss reflects demand shifting to OpenAI, not weaker models
An analyst says Anthropic's lower-than-expected ARR is not a sign its models fell behind, but that users moved en masse from Claude to Codex after Astra launched, with total demand unchanged.
A good chunk of the market seems to want to read Anthropic's lower than expected ARR as a sign that demand slowed because Anthropic's models are falling behind. So where did that demand go? Open source? No. It went to OpenAI. Didn't everyone already watch people cancel Claude en masse and move to Codex when Astra came out? Expectations were just too high. Total demand didn't change. You have to look at the combined ARR of OAI and Ant, not at either company on its own. Wasn't this trade never really about how much money OpenAI or Ant makes? Wasn't it about how much these two companies spend, and sizing who benefits from that spending?