Can Muse connectors become an app-store business?
The author argues open connectors only prove Muse's platform potential, while the take rate, merchant terms and willingness to pay remain undefined.
everyone thinks opening Muse connectors makes $META the new app store. maybe. but an app store has a toll booth. Muse still has a very expensive concierge standing where the cash register is supposed to go. bull case: Meta becomes the demand router for the internet. developers plug in, users ask for things, Muse sends the order. every $100B of GMV at a 1% cut is $1B of revenue. Wedbush can get to ~$5B of Muse subscriptions plus ~$1B of Business AI in 2027. base case: almost nobody pays $20-100/month for an agent, so Meta subsidizes the free tier until it can convince merchants to hand over a take rate. Zuckerberg says the cut would be "very small." the rate, merchant terms and even what counts as a Muse transaction are still undefined. bear case: OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and every vertical app fight for the same checkout. merchants refuse another tax, users keep the free compute, and Muse gets filed next to Sora under products that won the App Store before finding a business. Meta can afford the experiment. it is guiding to $130-145B of capex this year. that is also the problem: distribution can be instant while habit and monetization take years. connectors prove Muse can become a platform. they do not tell us who pays for it. https://x.com/finkd/status/2101084678640066765
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