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jevVIDEO

Jev's confidence score is just a derived value from classification probabilities

After checking the docs and demo, the author finds Jev's confidence is not Bayesian-style uncertainty but a metric derived from the largest probability, carrying no extra information, so the model can still be confidently wrong.

AVB
@neural_avbArchived 2026.09.21Originally posted 2026.09.20
AVB @neural_avbOriginally posted 2026.09.20
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I was super intrigued when I noticed that JEV returns not just probs for candidate choices, but also a CONFIDENCE SCORE of it's prediction... I was wondering if TypeSafe AI brought back Bayesian Networks or something to learn uncertainty. Turns out - NO. Acc to their docs, confidence is just a derived metric from the classification scores. It carries ZERO extra information. Their demo page shows: confidence = (3 × largest probability − 1) / 2 Confidence is tightly coupled with the classification scores it is measuring the uncertainty for. There is no magic here. The model can produce high probability on a wrong choice and just be confidently wrong.

x.com/neural_avb/status/2101594784490270785Archived 2026.09.21 10:27