Comparing options models with Polymarket odds using Jev
The author outlines a Jev workflow: Alpaca for stock and option prices, QuantLib for a probability model, the Polymarket SDK for order books, and Jev to read settlement rules and sort candidates into INVESTIGATE, WATCH or SKIP.
this 46-second clip made me question every price on Polymarket. the idea is simple: use stocks and options to build a probability model, then compare it with prediction-market prices. take one question: which company finishes first by market cap at the deadline? here's the Jev setup i'd build: ALPACA-PY → equity prices and option chains. QUANTLIB → pricing and volatility tools for a custom probability model. POLYMARKET SDK → prices and order books for the corresponding contracts. Jev → reads settlement rules and relevant evidence, checks the model’s assumptions against the contract, and sorts candidates: INVESTIGATE. WATCH. SKIP. code measures the gap. Jev evaluates the context. one outcome. two estimates. the disagreement becomes your research queue. that's what stuck with me: a market price is a hypothesis you can test. and the tools to start testing it are already on GitHub. repos below
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