gemini-4POST

Google Argon data: Gemini 4 handles real research tasks for only ~15 minutes

Citing Toby's finding, Gemini 4 (Google Argon) sustains real-world AI research tasks for about 15 minutes, far below the 6-hour METR and 18-hour AI 2027 forecasts.

Ramez Naam

@ramezArchived 12 days agoOriginally posted 2026.10.22

Ramez Naam @ramezOriginally posted 2026.10.22

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Good find by Toby. AIs are far less capable on real world AI research tasks than ECI x METR or AI 2027 predict. Data from Google Argon (adding on to OpenAI): Gemini 4 actual: ~15 minutes ECI --> METR Prediction: ~360 minutes (6 hrs) AI 2027 prediction: ~1,000 minutes (18 hrs)

This post quotes another post: x.com/tobyordoxford/status/2112944732930220392

x.com/ramez/status/2112951178455908789Archived 2026.10.22 09:56