Forecast: Chinese models may match GPT-6 Astra by mid-2027
A poster forecasts Chinese frontier models will reach GPT-6 Astra and Opus 5.5 capability between Feb and Nov 2027, likely May or June, possibly bringing rogue agents and cyber incidents.
We haven't seen a new chinese frontier model in a while but given what we have seen from GLM-5.3 and Kimi-K3 we should expect some > 160 ECI, but < 165 ECI models before the end of the year and sometime between Feb and Nov 2027 we should see chinese models as capable as GPT-6 Astra and Opus 5.5, likely around May or June 2027 this is when I expect things to go nuts. things like: - rogue agents - cyber incidents - message boards but I'm reasonably sure that chinese models will interact with the outside world in unintended ways before their release (which is how we will first learn about them). So we might already see some funky things in Q1 2027
This post quotes another post: x.com/scaling01/status/2078659671691272285