用 Astra 做期权机器人前先算清成本
借 Gruber 的 50/50 赌局说明：模型给出概率不等于有利润，扣掉手续费、点差和滑点后多数预测应放弃交易。
MIT economist Jonathan Gruber shows why a positive edge is not permission to tra A simple 50/50 bet: Win $125. Lose $100. Expected value: +$12.50. It looks favorable. Most of his class still refuses it. The same distinction matters for a GPT-6 Astra options bot. Astra can estimate probability. The market provides a price. But the gap between them is not profit. Before placing an order: → Subtract fees, spread, and slippage → Reduce the edge for model uncertainty → Size against the total bankroll → Reject the trade if the downside is too large The model proposes a probability. A separate decision layer decides whether it deserves capital. Most forecasts should end with no trade. The edge is not generating more predictions. It is making disciplined decisions under uncertainty. Scale only after the edge survives. Want the ruleset. Reply: VALUE I'll DM it.
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