用 Jev 校准 Opus 5.5 的置信度做仓位
作者发现 Opus 5.5 自称 88% 胜率的交易实际只有 56%，于是让 Jev 把口头置信度映射成真实胜率并做半凯利仓位与否决。
a friend who trades at one of the BIGGEST prop shops looked at my opus 5.5 setup for 30 seconds and asked one question: "where's your CALIBRATION?" i didn't have one. opus said 88% sure, so i sized like 88% sure. then i logged 3,000+ of its calls. its 88% trades win 56% of the time. LLM confidence is NOT probability. so now jev sits between opus and the market: → opus picks the DIRECTION + its confidence → jev maps stated confidence → REAL win rate → "says 0.88" → actually wins 0.56 → half kelly: ½ · (p - (1-p)/b) = 6% of book → VaR cap on top. VETO anything over in the video opus wanted 10x on btc. jev did the math and allowed 1x. same model. same signals. completely different RISK. if your agent sizes off its own confidence, you're betting 88% money on a 56% coin.
这条是引用着另一条写的：「长文：如何搭好 Jev 驱动的 agent 技术栈」