复现：Jev 类决策模型概率并不自洽

Shuvom Sadhuka @shuvom_s原推发布于 2026.10.11

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Decision models like Jev are getting a lot of hype right now, but are decision models I actually probabilistically coherent? What happens if you flip the predicate from "it will rain" to "it will NOT rain"? Turns out, not only do they give incoherent answers (e.g., P(A) + P(not A) > 1), but they're sometimes WORSE than standard LLMs. I recreated this work from @SuproteemSarkar and Isaiah Andrews on a simple weather forecasting task using OpenAI's new decision model.

这条是引用着另一条写的：x.com/suproteemsarkar/status/2095904452225990966