预测市场分类器实测：Jev 对比 Liquid AI D1
作者用 Tetlock 的历史预测题集，让 Jev 和 D1 给每个结果打概率再对答案，D1 在 12 个类别里赢了 9 个。
Using Classifiers in Prediction Markets: @typesafeai AI's Jev vs @liquidai's D1. Liquid AI's classifier wins in 9 out of 12 categories. About Benchmark: I learned about @PTetlock's @GJPForecasting 4 years ago, and ever since then, I have been fascinated with scenario analysis and the art of forecasting. In this study, I use the historical forecasting problem set. The classifiers assign a probability to each outcome in a scenario. Then, we compare the probabilities with the actual outcome, and we compare the quantitative results. These are very encouraging results for my prediction markets friends who are looking for newer quantitative techniques to trade on. But, as you know me- I don't condone gambling, so let me discourage the use of this tool in gambling :) Find the link in the comments.