Polymarket 押注 Anthropic 在万圣节前发新模型，因 Gemini 4 Argon 直接上线
Polymarket 上 39.6 万美元押 Anthropic 10 月 31 日前发布 5.2+ 新模型，10 月 31 日合约飙至 87%；作者称 Google 把 Gemini 4 Argon 直接投产、跳过等待名单，改写了发布节奏。
$396K Polymarket is betting heavy on Anthropic dropping Next Fable Model (5.2+) before Halloween [https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt?via=armouredme] The October 31 contract just spiked to 87% Look at how liquidity is distributed across the calendar: -> October 14: 19% -> October 17: 55% -> October 24: 82% Google just rewrote the release playbook by shipping Gemini 4 Argon straight to production without a waitlist phase The market is now aggressively pricing in the exact same ambush strategy from Anthropic Nobody is waiting for a slow beta rollout anymore Smart money is parking capital in the October 17-24 window and waiting for a sudden API drop
这条是引用着另一条写的：「Polymarket 判定 Gemini 4.0 已发布，Argon 跳过等待名单」