论文《预测的终结》：用 GPT-6 Astra 做反方论证

slash1s @slash1sol原推发布于 2026.09.23

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This is f*cking gold.. Chinese researchers just released a paper with a brutal title: "The End of Prediction". The case is simple: an AI that outputs BUY or SELL is finished as a product. Any signal a model can read is priced in before it finishes reading, and active managers already lose to the index over any multi-year window. The question a model answers well is different: what changed, and what is the evidence that it is real rather than noise. So the architecture flips. Plain code finds the anomaly, a million-token model compares eight quarters in one pass, and the heavy reasoning model is spent only on arguing against the result. 10,000 companies a day become 40 deep reads and 8 reasoning passes -- about $450 of inference where a naive full pass costs $60,000. Flagged events hit 37% precision against a 15 to 20% base rate. A real edge, and still nowhere near a forecast. The output has no score and no call. Only what changed, sourced, and what contradicts it. That is exactly the pipeline I built and wrote up below: Robinhood data, Kimi K3 for the reading, GPT-6 Astra for the counter-thesis. The entire paper in one line: you are selling research velocity, not prediction ↓

这条是引用着另一条写的：x.com/leopardracer/status/2101982527871131955